
Very few of us are professional linemakers, but many of us have experience setting lines. Here's what I mean: if you see Team X is favored by three points and you say, "This game should be a pick ’em," ... well, you've engaged in a form of line making.
It is one thing to set lines with only your own money at stake, but it's a completely different one when streams of bettors line up on Sunday and pound away at your creations. I've gained a great deal of respect for the challenges professional oddsmakers face, and I am sure I do not know the half of it.
I say all of this as I offer 12 hypothetical proposition wagers — six Over-Unders, six spreads — on various NFL topics. I constructed each of these props with an eye on how I thought bettors would play them. It was part research, part gut feel. I thank colleague Eric Edholm for the idea.
A few quick rules before we start. One, all props encompass the 2012 regular season only. Two, assume normal vigorish (-110) for each side of the wager. Three, though, like Snoop Lion, my dream is to own a fly casino, my limits are low, and a supervisor will come running over, harried look on face, if you try to wager more than the cost of a soda pop.
Enjoy:
OVER-UNDERS
Regular-season wins, AFC West winner: 9½
My reasoning: So many have said that the West is wide open. A .500 record, after all, won it last season, and only Kansas City has won double-digit games the past two seasons. However, I don't believe this number could be any lower than this.
Broncos QB Peyton Manning’s regular-season starts: 13½
My reasoning: You couldn’t have set a number this low two years ago. Now, I wonder if I’ve set it too high. Remember, there’s no need to worry about a consecutive-starts streak for Manning. His health and strength over a full season are paramount.