
Favorites covered in 10-of-14 games in Week Nine, causing much teeth-gnashing from the bookmaker's side of the counter.
I was favorite-heavy a week ago, and I'm taking the same approach this week. As I've said before, I look for value; I don't set out to take or lay points.
A few years ago, I had something of a complex about picking favorites. I knew sharp handicappers generally preferred underdogs, and I knew this much — I didn't want to be a square.
Well, those days are in my rearview mirror, and though it's never easy to handicap, it's easier when you're not worried about style points.
Underdogs have their place in the bettor's portfolio. So do favorites.
Last week's results were a reminder that laying the points can be the right — and winning — move.
My Week 10 picks:
Houston (+1) at Chicago
Here's why I like the Bears:
• In 36 non-conference matchups entering Week 10, the NFC has won 23 times, with the AFC winning just 13 times.
• The Bears' offense has the potential to be more dangerous than it is right now. The Bears have a blue-chip wideout (Brandon Marshall) and above-average starters at quarterback (Jay Cutler) and running back (Matt Forté). Yes, the offensive line is shaky, a real concern in this particular matchup. Nevertheless, I believe this is an offense with the ability to improve.
• At this price, the Bears are tough to pass up. The Texans are very, very good, but facing a rolling Bears team in Chicago is no easy task. I believe the Bears, with a strong defense, excellent special-teams corps and an intriguing offense, are the play.
Wilkening's pick: Chicago
San Diego at Tampa Bay (47½)
It's time for me to dive back into the world of Over-Unders for the first time since Week One.