In my opinion, this is a challenging card from a pointspread perspective, with value being tough to find.

Thank goodness for Over-Unders.

Well, at least I hope so.

My Week 11 picks:

Jacksonville at Houston (O/U 40½)

I'm moderately scared of heights. Have you seen the commercial where the guy proposes in a hot air balloon and then the happy couple hugs? That sends sends a chill through me every time I see it. I would need more than a  Groupon to get me in a hot air balloon.

I also would need a good reason to ever play an Over in a Jaguars game. Well, I'd need several of them. And I have a few of them in Week 11:

• The Jaguars' highest-scoring performances of the season (23 points in Weeks One and Seven) came when they had extra time to prepare. The Jaguars will have had 10 days between games leading into Week 11.

• The Jaguars' defense struggled vs. the Texans' rushing attack in Week Two. While I expect the Jaguars to be stronger vs. the run this time, they could then be vulnerable against the pass.

• The total has fallen below 41, which means 21-20, 24-17, 27-14, 28-13, 31-10 and 34-7 are all scores that would make the Over a winner.

Wilkening's pick: Over 40½

Cleveland (+8) at Dallas

I'm skeptical of the Browns' ability to keep this one close. They have exceeded 16 points just three times (twice against the Bengals). Also, their defense could be quite vulnerable if CB Joe Haden (clavicle) is out or limited on Sunday. 

Even if Haden were to play, something close to the Cowboys' best effort could make this a one-sided affair. While Cleveland has been competitve in most of its road games in Pat Shurmur's tenure as head coach, it has won only once away from Cleveland Browns Stadium in the past two seasons.