San Francisco (+8½) at Philadelphia

I'm usually leery of laying this many points against a sound team like San Francisco, but I have to wonder if the 49ers aren't going to come out a little flat after a big win Monday night vs. Arizona. Also, San Francisco doesn't match up well with Philadelphia. QB Alex Smith is going to see a wide variety of blitzes from Eagles defensive coordinator Sean McDermott, and I'm not convinced he can make Philadelphia's defense pay for its aggressiveness.

The Eagles' offense is getting better and better, and their defense will fare better against the Niners' attack than it did against the Giants' offense. With the division title in sight, expect a focused effort from Philadelphia. 

Wilkening's pick: Philadelphia

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Chicago (+11) at Baltimore

It is always dangerous to pick against the Ravens at home, and it hasn't been a picnic backing the Bears, who are traditionally popular with the betting public, though perhaps not so much recently. Those who have backed Chicago recently can be heard airing their grievances at Christmas (and "Festivus") celebrations everywhere:

Party Guest No. 1: Did you know the Bears have failed to cover in six straight games?

Party Guest No. 2: Know about it? (Turns wallet inside out and upside down, tugs on collar of sweater with both hands, a la Jay Cutler.)