Week 15 handicapping column
UPDATED: 12/17/2009

Every one of the games I've handicapped this week have postseason ramifications. Yes, sadly, I will not be picking a game involving the Chiefs this week.

On to the selections:

Green Bay (+2) at Pittsburgh

When a public team like the Steelers goes off-form, the losing tickets hit the floor, and bookmakers rake in the money. Since the beginning of November, the Steelers have covered just twice, and only once when QB Ben Roethlisberger has started. Three of their last four defeats have been to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns, and in each instance, they were favored by double digits.

If you are lining up to bet against them again, I can't blame you. The Steelers have covered only four times this season, and only once have they covered by more than a touchdown. Nothing has been easy for those who have bet on them. And, certainly, the sting of backing them laying big points against bottom-feeders, only to watch them play little like Super Bowl champions, is going to be too fresh for some handicappers to even think about playing Pittsburgh again any time soon.

I can't say I have had a great read on the Steelers myself, but the last time I picked them in this space, they whipped the Broncos back in Week Eight. And I will side with them again this week. Frankly, I don't believe the Steelers can play any worse than they have lately, and I am expecting quite a bit of improvement after a couple of extra days off after a Thursday-night game in Week 14.

Some have suggested that the Steelers' days as contenders may be over with this core group of players. I don't necessarily agree with that sentiment, and I wonder if it might provide a healthy dose of motivation for a team that needs a jolt. 

Wilkening's pick: Pittsburgh

San Francisco (+8½) at Philadelphia

I'm usually leery of laying this many points against a sound team like San Francisco, but I have to wonder if the 49ers aren't going to come out a little flat after a big win Monday night vs. Arizona. Also, San Francisco doesn't match up well with Philadelphia. QB Alex Smith is going to see a wide variety of blitzes from Eagles defensive coordinator Sean McDermott, and I'm not convinced he can make Philadelphia's defense pay for its aggressiveness.

The Eagles' offense is getting better and better, and their defense will fare better against the Niners' attack than it did against the Giants' offense. With the division title in sight, expect a focused effort from Philadelphia. 

Wilkening's pick: Philadelphia

 

ADVERTISEMENT

Click here for FREE Expert Football Selections from ATS Consultants

 

Chicago (+11) at Baltimore

It is always dangerous to pick against the Ravens at home, and it hasn't been a picnic backing the Bears, who are traditionally popular with the betting public, though perhaps not so much recently. Those who have backed Chicago recently can be heard airing their grievances at Christmas (and "Festivus") celebrations everywhere:

Party Guest No. 1: Did you know the Bears have failed to cover in six straight games?

Party Guest No. 2: Know about it? (Turns wallet inside out and upside down, tugs on collar of sweater with both hands, a la Jay Cutler.)

The Bears are a far-from-perfect underdog, yes, but four of their last six efforts would cover this somewhat inflated pointspread — which, of course, is a function of their inability to cover since Nov. 1. Nevertheless, they will (finally) break that streak on Sunday, even it's a few weeks and many dollars short for some.

Wilkening's pick: Chicago

N.Y. Giants (-3) at Washington

I like the Giants' chances at completing the season-series sweep of Washington. The Redskins have covered five straight games, and many will rush to back them against a Giants club that has lost six of eight and surrendered 45 points to Philadelphia in Week 14.

While the Giants don't quite stack up with the NFC's elite, they are perfectly capable of again handling the Redskins, whom they defeated 23-17 back in Week One. The Giants, who racked up more than 500 yards last week, have just a little too much on offense for Washington, which could also be due for a regression after playing surprisingly well of late.

Wilkening's pick: N.Y. Giants

Last week: 1-3
Season to date: 24-31-1



share this
Around the NFL Blog
Pro Football Weekly Home
View Full Site
Help and Feedback
Powered by Crisp Wireless, Inc.