If I knew anything about statistics — i.e., the kind they tried to teach you in college — I’d come up with a useful matrix to figure out the greatest standard deviation among fantasy prospects entering the 2012.

In layman’s terms, which I am best served sticking to, it means how varied people value certain players.

There is plenty of consensus with fantasy football drafts. You just know where certain guys are going to be picked.

But there always are mystery players who change the course of drafts. Players whose values are tricky to evaluate and are almost certain to go far earlier or later than expected.

Here are five players who fall into that category:

Redskins QB Robert Griffin III — Some like him as a top-six or seven quarterback because of his running ability, which often gives a hidden boost. They’ll point to Cam Newton, who ranked third among all players in PFW’s scoring system in 2011, and say that Newton has that same type of potential. Indeed. But we don’t know how well he can throw it consistently with a group of receivers that must prove itself. Based on early results, it appears that Griffin is being drafted anywhere from Round Four or Five in some leagues all the way to the eighth or ninth round in others. On the high end, that means people see him as a weekly starter; on the low side of the spectrum, he’s being viewed as a weekly coin flip with another QB. There also is an injury factor that exists with Griffin. He’s not as physically strong as Newton or Tim Tebow or as elusive (scouts say he’s more of a straight-line runner) as Michael Vick. But you’d be in good shape considering Griffin as a strong starter if you anchor him with a solid backup QB.
Best place to draft Griffin: Between 70-80 overall, just after Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler but well before Matt Schaub or Josh Freeman.

Vikings RB Adrian Peterson — Injured or not? Healthy, Peterson is a top-five overall pick. Has been for years. But coming off a torn ACL in December, his value has sunk. Just how far? Initially, Peterson was being rated as a fourth-round fantasy pick or lower — one national fantasy writer had him ranked in the mid-30s among running backs — but he since has risen steadily as he insists he’ll be back by Week One. That remains to be seen, and the Vikings will not risk one of their biggest investments by throwing Peterson out on the field too soon. They’ll be very smart and measured with him. You should, too. Peterson has averaged missing 1.4 games per season in his five years in the pros. You might have to double that number and expect him to miss three this season. But when you consider his per-game averages of about 85 rushing yards and one TD the past three seasons, you do the math and figure out he’d put up around 1,250 yards and 13 TDs in a projected 13-game season. Is that worth a top-30 fantasy pick? You bet.
Best place to draft Peterson: Between 20-30 overall, right before the big run of wide receivers happens.