However. the Ravens' defense will provide more resistance than Denver's overmatched stop unit. Also, their offense will be a far tougher challenge than the Broncos' attack. Yes, the Ravens are a little flaky on offense, but RB Ray Rice has given the Patriots trouble in the past, as has QB Joe Flacco.

Yes, Flacco. I get the sense his anticipated play will be a key handicapping angle for some. And I know some are going to handicap the game this way: Brady > Flacco; therefore, Patriots > Ravens.

That might be the right answer. But I believe it's an oversimplification, especially as the pointspread is concerned, for it ignores the Ravens' material defensive edge, as well as the fact that recent meetings between the clubs usually have been close — and the only blowout was a Ravens win in the '09 wild-card round.

I'm taking the points. I do it respectfully, for only a fool would pick against the Pats with swagger. But I believe the underdog is the value play.

Wilkening's pick: Baltimore

N.Y. Giants (+2½) at San Francisco

In the regular-season meeting between the teams on Nov. 13, the Giants held a 13-12 lead at the start of the fourth quarter. Then, the 49ers seized control with two TDs, capitalizing on a poor punt for the first score and intercepting Giants QB Eli Manning for the second score. The Giants would cut San Francisco's lead to 27-20 and get as close as the Niners' 10-yard-line with 1:24 left, but they would get no closer as the 49ers' defense held.

In defeat, the Giants outgained the Niners 395-305 and converted 7-of-14 third downs. The 49ers' early fourth-quarter burst was the difference in the game, and San Francisco's playmaking capability in all facets — offense, defense and special teams — must be respected.