Both of my underdog picks (Atlanta and Cincinnati) won vs. the spread and on the money line last week, and my Under 40½ play in Browns-Bills was a wind-aided rout against the number. What will I do for an encore? Well, I'm sticking with the Bengals, but I'm playing against the Falcons. Also, my only Over/Under pick involves a dome game, so the weather gods can't help me this week.

On to the picks:

Houston (+5) at Cincinnati

This line opened with the Bengals favored by 6½ points, and I understand why bettors have been eager to take the points, as Cincinnati's four wins have come by a grand total of 16 points.

However, let's look at the teams the Bengals have played. The loss to Denver in Week One was a fluke, and the Broncos playing them so close for four quarters no longer looks egregious; in fact, it's something of a badge of honor. Cincinnati has won four straight since, and even the worst of those wins, a three-point triumph at Cleveland, showed the Bengals could win with something less than their best effort.

Now let's look at the Texans. Their grit in a comeback win at Tennessee in Week Two was striking, and you have to give them credit for whipping a sad-looking Oakland outfit in Week Four. But their defense is a major weakness and has been picked parts for stretches in several of their games, most recently last week at Arizona, when Cardinals QB Kurt Warner threw for 262 yards and two TDs in the first half.