Week Seven handicapping column
UPDATED: 10/22/2009

We enter one of the more challenging stretches of the season: the three weeks on the NFL schedule in which six teams are on bye. On the most basic level, it limits the options available to handicappers, most of whom want as many sides and totals to pick from as possible. And perhaps it is just me, but the lines, usually spot-on for NFL games, are even tighter when the byes start to pile up.

Nonetheless, I still found three sides and one total I really like.

On to the picks:

San Francisco (+3) at Houston

The betting public was right last week: the underdog Texans were the play vs. the Bengals. And those who watched Houston handle Cincinnati had to be stunned by what they were seeing. Yes, the Texans' offense, led by QB Matt Schaub, was spectacular, but the Houston defense shut down Cincy's running game — the third week in a row it had held an opponent to less than 50 yards on the ground. Stuffing the Raiders' and Cardinals' running game was one thing, but to take the Bengals' ground game down a peg was another thing altogether.

I don't expect another dominant performance by this suddenly stout Houston run defense, with the 49ers having two weeks to prepare for Houston and with Niners RB Frank Gore returning from injury. But I'm confident we're not going to see the wave of mental and physical mistakes that led opponents to run almost at will in the first month of the season. If Houston is sound defensively, it will have a decisive edge, for its offense is significantly stronger than San Francisco's. And the Niners' defense, as we saw two weeks ago vs. Atlanta, can struggle against high-powered attacks.

Wilkening's pick: Houston

Minnesota (+4) at Pittsburgh

Page 1 of 3
Next >>
Read Full Article


>> next
<< previous
Handicapper's Corner
Pro Football Weekly Home
Help and Feedback
Powered by Crisp Wireless, Inc.