In this week's column, I select two favorites with Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks and a pair of underdogs with quarterbacks who began the preseason as backups.
Yes, this should be fun.
On to the picks:
Miami (+5½) at Minnesota (39½)
We think of Mall of America Field (formerly the Metrodome) as a tough place to play, and indeed, it is: Minnesota didn't lose at home last season, and it is 20-6 straight-up the past three seasons (including playoffs) sheltered from the elements in Minneapolis. Handicappers who backed the Vikings at home last season were particularly happy with the results, with Minnesota posting a 6-2-1 record against the spread as hosts.
Three extra days to prepare for Miami — and to get their passing attack back on track — can only help the Vikings, whose five-point loss at New Orleans looks very good when you consider they surrendered only two offensive touchdowns to one of the NFL's most potent offenses. The Dolphins' offense isn't as imposing, and its strength is its running game. And Minnesota usually blunts ground attacks.
The Vikings had the misfortune of losing in Week One in front of a huge national TV audience, Their flaws have been picked apart for almost a week now. I like a lot of underdogs this week, but I really like this talented, and perhaps undervalued, favorite.
Wilkening's pick: Minnesota
Arizona (+6½) at Atlanta (43)
The Cardinals used to be a team to fade on the road. From 2000-06, they were 21-34-1 ATS. But they have been better in recent years, posting a 13-12-1 ATS mark the past three seasons (including playoffs). They were sneakily good in this spot a season ago in the regular season, covering 5-of-8 times, including four in a row to start the campaign.
"Sneakily good" can also describe their 17-13 win at St. Louis in Week One. The Rams are improved from a season ago, and the Cardinals switched starting quarterbacks midway through the preseason. Also, WR Larry Fitzgerald made his return after a knee injury suffered in August. A lesser team would have lost to the Rams — seriously. Sam Bradford is going to be very good.
I came away liking the Cardinals' grit. QB Derek Anderson can be, well … streakily bad at times. But when he's on his game, he's a great fit in an offense like Arizona's. He thrived in Cleveland in a low-expectations setting in '07; this is a good spot for him.
The Falcons, 6-2 ATS at home last season, should be favored, but not by this much. The Cardinals will give them a game.
Wilkening's pick: Arizona
Pittsburgh (+4½) at Tennessee (36½)
As I detailed in "Handicapper's Corner" earlier this week, the Steelers aren't often underdogs in back-to-back games. But here they are, getting points at Tennessee after winning and covering as underdogs vs. Atlanta last week.
The Titans usually give the Steelers all they can handle. Tennessee has covered in the last two meetings between the teams and hung 31 points on a stellar Steelers defense in 2008 en route to clinching the top playoff spot in the AFC. Last year, the Titans fell 13-10 in overtime at Pittsburgh. The funny thing about both of those games is that Titans RB Chris Johnson received 16 or fewer carries in both games. Considering how Johnson has been used since about the middle of last season, anything less than 20 carries would be a stunner in this game.
This works in the Titans' favor. So does Steelers QB Dennis Dixon's inexperience. This is only his second road start. Dixon hasn't caught a cupcake yet in his pro career. He started at Baltimore last year, and Atlanta is no picnic, either. Overall, though, he has acquitted himself well. He may make a mistake or two in this game, but Titans QB Vince Young could very well do the same in the face of Pittsburgh pressure. Yes, Dixon has never seen the Titans' ferocious front four, but don't forget that this is Young's first start against Dick LeBeau's zone-blitzes.
This looks like a slugfest. I am siding with the better defense. And yes, I am siding with the team with the third-string quarterback. The Steelers, who have covered six consecutive times when getting points, are infrequent but reliable underdogs.
Wilkening's pick: Pittsburgh
New England (-3) at N.Y. Jets (38)
The Patriots, who took apart the talented Bengals in Week One, are catching the Jets at a good time. The Jets' offense didn't get much going against Baltimore, and their defense had more problems than expected stopping the Ravens' improved passing game.
The Patriots and Jets split a pair of games a season ago, with the Jets winning and covering at home early in the season with New England WR Wes Welker out of the lineup. In the rematch, Welker caught 15 passes for 192 yards in a 31-14 New England win.
Welker will play Sunday, and the Patriots' passing game is again imposing. New England's edge here is probably too much for the Jets, who are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. New England at home, to overcome.
Wilkening's pick: New England
Last week: 2-1-1
Season to date: 2-1-1