We enter one of the more challenging stretches of the season: the three weeks on the NFL schedule in which six teams are on bye. On the most basic level, it limits the options available to handicappers, most of whom want as many sides and totals to pick from as possible. And perhaps it is just me, but the lines, usually spot-on for NFL games, are even tighter when the byes start to pile up.
Nonetheless, I still found three sides and one total I really like.
On to the picks:
San Francisco (+3) at Houston
The betting public was right last week: the underdog Texans were the play vs. the Bengals. And those who watched Houston handle Cincinnati had to be stunned by what they were seeing. Yes, the Texans' offense, led by QB Matt Schaub, was spectacular, but the Houston defense shut down Cincy's running game — the third week in a row it had held an opponent to less than 50 yards on the ground. Stuffing the Raiders' and Cardinals' running game was one thing, but to take the Bengals' ground game down a peg was another thing altogether.
I don't expect another dominant performance by this suddenly stout Houston run defense, with the 49ers having two weeks to prepare for Houston and with Niners RB Frank Gore returning from injury. But I'm confident we're not going to see the wave of mental and physical mistakes that led opponents to run almost at will in the first month of the season. If Houston is sound defensively, it will have a decisive edge, for its offense is significantly stronger than San Francisco's. And the Niners' defense, as we saw two weeks ago vs. Atlanta, can struggle against high-powered attacks.
Wilkening's pick: Houston
Minnesota (+4) at Pittsburgh
Frankly, the Steelers have looked bored to me throughout October, their focus waning at points during comfortable wins vs. San Diego, at Detroit and vs. Cleveland. They will be put to the test by the Vikings, but I don't believe that's a bad thing in the least; the defending Super Bowl champions could use a test.
Were it not for blown fourth-quarter leads at Chicago and at Cincinnati with SS Troy Polamalu out of the lineup in September, the Steelers would be 6-0. The defense isn't as dominant as it was last season, but Polamalu's back in the lineup, and the offense is much better, with QB Ben Roethlisberger perhaps playing at a higher level than he ever has.
The Vikings' secondary is likely to have its hands full with the Steelers' passing attack with or without CB Antoine Winfield, who's battling a foot injury. While the Steelers won't shut down the Vikings' high-scoring attack, they will get enough stops, and Pittsburgh, which has needed to get its mind on business for a while, will rise to the occasion.
Wilkening's pick: Pittsburgh
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Chicago at Cincinnati (O/U 42)
I would not be surprised if this becomes something of a shootout, as both defenses have suffered some key injuries. The Bengals lost their best pass rusher, DE Antwan Odom, to a ruptured Achilles tendon, and the Bears reshuffled their LB corps after Pisa Tinoisamoa suffered a season-ending knee injury.
I expect both teams to be able to attack with the pass. The Bengals have allowed 25 pass plays of 20 yards or more, and the Bears' secondary play is not the strength of the defense. Moreover, I'm looking for both clubs to have some success in the running game, too, especially Chicago. With the weather not expected to be a factor on game day, the Over is the play.
Wilkening's pick: Over 42
Atlanta (+4) at Dallas
I continue to be more and more impressed by the Falcons, explosive on offense and steady yet aggressive on defense. That's a formula for staying in a lot of games. I particularly liked how they shook off a slow start vs. Chicago in Week Six, adjusting to the Bears' blitzes, clamping down on defense and grinding out a 21-14 win. A lesser team would have fallen behind by multiple scores and perhaps lost, but the Falcons recovered like a playoff-caliber team should.
The Falcons did come out of the Chicago win with injuries to CB Brian Williams and RB Jerious Norwood, and I am slightly worried about a letdown with a trip to New Orleans next on the schedule. But Atlanta looks capable of stringing several good efforts together. The Cowboys' defense has disappointed for much of the season, and expecting it to shut down the Falcons is unreasonable. I'll take the points.
Wilkening's pick: Atlanta
Last week: 1-3
Season to date: 11-13