In this week's column, I'm backing two AFC North teams hitting the road, and I'm seeing low-scoring games unfolding in San Francisco and Atlanta.
On to the picks:
Tennessee at San Francisco (O/U 41)
This looks like a defensive battle to me. Yes, the Titans scored 30 points last week vs. Jacksonville, but two of Tennessee's touchdowns came on long Chris Johnson TD runs against a poor-tackling defense. The 49ers are much sounder defensively, and the Titans are going to have to string drives together to score. And the Niners' offense isn't going to have it easy, either. The Titans' defense played well last week save for some terrible tackling on a pair of lengthy TD runs by Maurice Jones-Drew.
One other factor I like: both offenses aren't going to look to stretch the field vertically very often. I'll admit: I thought the Niners would significantly open up the offense with Alex Smith under center, but that wasn't the case last week at Indianapolis.
Put this all together and there's a pretty good case for this game being a plodding affair.
Wilkening's pick: Under 41
Baltimore (-3) at Cincinnati
When these teams played back in Week Five, I took the points with the Bengals. This time around, though, I'm leaning toward the Ravens, who were awfully close to squeaking out a win against Cincinnati back on Oct. 11 even after playing its worst full game of the season.
Sometimes handicapping divisional matchups just comes down to whether you believe a team can repeat a strong effort a second time, and I don't see the Bengals rolling for more than 400 yards vs. Baltimore in the rematch between the clubs. I do, however, expect significant improvement from the Ravens, whose 4-3 record belies how good they are, in my view. Coming off a thoroughly impressive 23-point win vs. then-unbeaten Denver, Baltimore is the play.
Wilkening's pick: Baltimore
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Washington at Atlanta (O/U 41½)
The Under holds quite a bit of appeal here for many reasons, but one factor closed the deal: Falcons QB Matt Ryan has struggled in his last three starts, completing just 57-of-110 passes for 672 yards for five touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has overthrown and underthrown receivers at an alarming rate.
Ryan is better than that, and I wouldn't be stunned if he's sharper on Sunday than he has been in recent weeks. But even if he's better, he still has to contend with a tough Washington secondary and pass rush. Moreover, the Redskins are allowing just 3.9 yards per rush.
We know the story about the Redskins' offense: it lacks weapons, and I don't expect much improvement in the first game after the bye. I'm expecting a slugfest.
Wilkening's pick: Under 41½
Pittsburgh (-3) at Denver
The Broncos took a step back in their Week Eight loss to Baltimore, and the Ravens' pass-rush pressure short-circuited the Denver attack. Well, as disruptive as the Ravens' defense can be, the Steelers' defense is even better, even with the prospect of a couple of starters missing the game because of injuries. The Steelers have long been adept at plugging in backups and continuing to roll on, and their depth is solid.
The Broncos might be able to keep this close for a few quarters, but the Steelers' offense is unlikely to be shut down for an entire game, and Pittsburgh should be able to pull away late to secure its fifth straight win.
Wilkening's pick: Pittsburgh
Last week: 2-2
Season to date: 15-16-1