The bye weeks are over. The weather hasn't quite turned terrible just yet. It's not too early to start thinking about the playoffs, but it's a little premature to be worrying about tiebreaking scenarios.  

Welcome to Week 11 of the NFL season. Seven full regular-season cards left. Let's have some fun, shall we?

On to the picks:

Miami (+3) at Carolina

Favorites have dominated in late-season Thursday games in recent seasons, posting a robust 18-5-1 mark against the spread. Home teams have had a slight edge in this span, covering 13 times against 10 losses with one push.

That's one reason to like the Panthers. Another reason: the Dolphins have surrendered more than 100 yards rushing in each of their last five games, and the Panthers are averaging 212.3 yards on the ground in November.

The Dolphins have had a potent running game of their own, but the loss of RB Ronnie Brown to a season-ending injury is a tremendous blow to Miami. With the Panthers on a roll, and with the Dolphins having four days to contemplate how to replace their best offensive player. Carolina is the play.

Wilkening's pick: Carolina

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (O/U 46)

The Under would have appealed to me even if Falcons RB Michael Turner weren't expected to miss this game with a high ankle sprain. QB Matt Ryan's accuracy has been a concern for weeks, and I'm not going to bank on him fixing the problem at Giants Stadium in late November against a defense coming off a bye. (Also, there's a slight chance of rain in the forecast.)

I expect the Giants to emphasize their running game, and I'm seeing a few clock-chewing scoring drives in their future. They should prevail vs. the Falcons, but can they cover? I don't have a strong feeling, but I will be leaning toward the Under, particularly since the total is greater than 45 points. Even a 24-21 outcome would bring home the "W."