The Under has been a strong play in the wild-card round in the last decade, striking at a 64.1 percent rate, but when I look at this slate of games, I see three clear 'Over' plays.

On to the picks:

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets (O/U 34½)

Both teams are going to sit back and dare the opposing quarterback to beat them, and as a result, I think we're going to see more points than expected in this game.

Sure, this could become a 10-3, 10-6, 17-10 taffy pull. We have two teams that have made it here outslugging their opposition.

But I suspect Bengals offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski and Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will have to call more pass plays than you might expect on Saturday afternoon. Two factors lead me to this conclusion:

1. The Bengals are very familiar with Rex Ryan's defensive scheme from Ryan's time as the Ravens' defensive coordinator, and they have to know that a run, run and run again offense may not gain much traction against the Jets. QB Carson Palmer had some productive games against the Ravens when Ryan ran the Baltimore defense; granted, Palmer had more weapons, and the Ravens didn't have a cornerback as good as Darrelle Revis. That said, I suspect Cincinnati will be more aggressive offensively than we have seen recently.