Divisional-round handicapping column
UPDATED: 01/14/2010

My 'Over'-heavy strategy worked well in the wild-card round, with all three of my totals picks hitting. My one pointspread selection, Baltimore, also came through. This pushes my ATS record in wild-card games I've picked in this column since 2003 to 24-4.

This week, I'm focusing sides, not on Over-Unders. And no, I want no part of the Cardinals-Saints total, which is a sky-high 57 points, after briefly considering an 'Under' play simply because the number was so big. But I'll pass, thank you very much.

On to the picks:

Arizona (+7) at New Orleans

Frankly, the Saints have been a terrible bet since winning and covering their first six games of the season. They are 2-8 ATS in their final 10 games, only once covering a spread this high — and that was against the Buccaneers, whom they then proceeded to lose to five weeks later.

Could the Cardinals be wrung-out after an emotional win vs. Green Bay? They could. And their pass defense inspires little confidence from how it performed against Aaron Rodgers and friends. Were the Cards getting just, say, a field goal, picking a side would be a tough call.

But seven points is a lot to lay with New Orleans right now. The Cardinals won 6-of-8 on the road this season, and the wins vs. top-caliber Minnesota and Green Bay signal they are capable of giving the Saints all they can handle. I'll take the points.

Wilkening's pick: Arizona

Baltimore (+6½) at Indianapolis

The Colts have won seven in a row over the Ravens, and all but two of their victories were by nine points or more. Indianapolis' significant edge at quarterback has usually shown up in a major way in these games, and it could very well again, with Ravens QB Joe Flacco bothered by a hip injury.

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