Conference championship handicapping column

It's time to pick up the pieces after a divisional round that was a learning experience. The lesson: Teams coming off the bye can be very, very dangerous, and visiting underdogs facing these clubs likely have to be a cut above to cover, let alone win. I'll file that one away for next season; for now, the focus is the conference title round.
On to the picks:

N.Y. Jets (+7½) at Indianapolis

These teams met in Week 16, and we all know what happened: With the Colts holding a 15-10 lead in the third quarter, head coach Jim Caldwell pulled QB Peyton Manning, and Indianapolis didn't score again en route to a 29-15 loss.

What can we glean from that game? Well, you can see the Colts holding a five-point third-quarter lead as a sign that their first-stringers, playing a full game this time, will take handle the Jets in the rematch. Or, you can see the Jets hanging tough with the Colts early before overpowering their backups late as a signal that they can give Indianapolis a tough matchup for a second straight game.

I'm in the second camp. I'll take the points, and I'll take my chances that the Jets can hold Indianapolis to 17-20 points — a reasonable number, in my estimation, considering the Colts scored 20 points last week and racked up just 275 yards on 71 plays. Note that I do not expect the Jets to overpower the Colts with their running game. Though RBs Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene combined for 200 yards in the first matchup with Indianapolis, I see the Colts being more stout vs. the Jets' rushing attack in the rematch.

This looks like a grinder of a game, and I'll back the underdog with a defense stronger than any other in the NFL.

Wilkening's pick: N.Y. Jets

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