Indianapolis (-5, O/U 56½) vs. New Orleans

As always, the pointspread and Over-Under give us an indication of how the public at large views this game, and two points are clear:

— The public loves the Colts. Las Vegas Sports Consultants Inc., which advises many Nevada sportsbooks on pointspreads, installed Indianapolis as a four-point favorite on the evening of the conference title games. However, the majority of the early money was on Indianapolis, and the line moved accordingly.

— Bettors are expecting a shootout. LVSC's opening total was 52, but the prevailing number requires a bettor to clear a very high hurdle of more than eight TDs to cash an "Over" ticket.

The prospect of taking the points with the Saints has to excite their fans, NFC loyalists and underdog players alike; each group may well be rubbing their eyes in disbelief at the prospect of getting almost two field goals on the line with a 15-win club that boasts a very powerful offense. And if you like New Orleans to cover in Super Bowl XLIV, I certainly wouldn't try to talk you out of your pick, for the Saints are exceptionally strong underdogs.

But I see one big problem looming for the Saints: Their defense gives up a lot of yards, and unless it becomes much more stout in this, the Saints' 19th game of their magical season, it likely will need to force a few turnovers to beat the Colts. And stranger things have happened. The Saints are adept at forcing their opponent to make mistakes, and the Colts turned the ball over more in the regular season than the Vikings, who lost three fumbles and threw two picks in the NFC title game at New Orleans.

However, I don't see the Colts, who are 7-3-1 against the spread as favorites of seven points or fewer this season, imploding like the Vikings. And even in defeat, Minnesota scored 28 points and outgained New Orleans 475-257.